If, as is widely expected, the Islamist AKP party is thrown out, an electoral earthquake is possible

The perennial, passionate debate over the place of Islam in Turkish society is reaching another crossroads. Within the next few weeks, the constitutional court will conclude a case brought against the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) by the military for "anti-secular activities". It is widely expected that it will close down the government and ban the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, from politics.

The current power struggle erupted between secularist and Islamist ideologues after the AKP's landslide re-election last July. During its first term in office, the Islamist-rooted party introduced extensive political, human rights' and economic reforms under the aegis of the European Union accession process. Excitement filled the air.

But, despite garnering this renewed mandate for reforms, in its second term the AKP resorted to Islamic populism and confrontational politics. Gone were the days of reform and in came religion: pig farms were closed down, there were attempts to restrict alcohol advertising and, most controversially, the lifting of the headscarf ban at universities. Joining the EU ceased to be a priority, and the government became increasingly repressive towards any public expression of dissent.

Beyond the high drama, political intrigue and score-settling, however, there is a dynamic and exhilarating Turkey in the making. According to recent opinion polls, the public's support for both secularism and religion is rising in parallel. Headscarf wearing is at the same time declining. That and other evidence is pointing strongly to an intriguing development - Islamic and secular values are apparently converging among the Turkish people. A secularising Islam is emerging.